Aug
11
Several years ago I was lucky enough to study for a Masters degree at a brilliant business school in Scotland. Even more fortunate - they let me have one...
One of the techniques we learned was how to develop things called scenarios. These are best described as "stories of the future". They're based on a mixture of fact, calculation, insight and understanding. The best ones are tied back in to present day events so you can see your "stories" unfold (if your research has uncovered the right things).
The thing about scenario planning or development is that you create a range of stories covering a number of "possible" futures (typically four of them) - you make no judgement on what the future will be, you can only craft a range of stories that describe the rough directions in which it could go.
"He who predicts the future lies, even when he tells the truth" is an ancient proverb (I can't remember who said it and I apologise now to my old lecturers) which tells us that people who try to tell us what's going to happen are a shower of *******s. At least, that's my interpretation.
Some organisations have tried to use scenarios. In my part of the world, a notable example was VisitScotland, where the chief scenarist described himself as a "crystal ball gazer" - a term which had those of us who have been regularly involved in developing scenarios recoil in horror. His description makes us sound like fortune tellers, which we are emphatically not.
Hotel revenue managers use some scenario derived techniques to help them understand trends and how they might play out. But I don't think the craft is practised quite as effectively as it could be.
Here's a wee look at one "possible future" for 2010: The double dip recession.
One of the techniques we learned was how to develop things called scenarios. These are best described as "stories of the future". They're based on a mixture of fact, calculation, insight and understanding. The best ones are tied back in to present day events so you can see your "stories" unfold (if your research has uncovered the right things).
The thing about scenario planning or development is that you create a range of stories covering a number of "possible" futures (typically four of them) - you make no judgement on what the future will be, you can only craft a range of stories that describe the rough directions in which it could go.
"He who predicts the future lies, even when he tells the truth" is an ancient proverb (I can't remember who said it and I apologise now to my old lecturers) which tells us that people who try to tell us what's going to happen are a shower of *******s. At least, that's my interpretation.
Some organisations have tried to use scenarios. In my part of the world, a notable example was VisitScotland, where the chief scenarist described himself as a "crystal ball gazer" - a term which had those of us who have been regularly involved in developing scenarios recoil in horror. His description makes us sound like fortune tellers, which we are emphatically not.
Hotel revenue managers use some scenario derived techniques to help them understand trends and how they might play out. But I don't think the craft is practised quite as effectively as it could be.
Here's a wee look at one "possible future" for 2010: The double dip recession.
Governments and estate agents all seem to want us to believe that the current recession is "bottoming out" and that we should all take on lots of debt again so we can spend our way out of trouble.
Hmm.
An old colleague of mine (who works in a respectable US organisation and knows a thing or two) painted this picture of the reasons why 2010 might not be the year to max out your credit card:
Things will look better. We'll be told things are better. We'll smile, pick ourselves up, dust ourselves down and take a step off the kerb into 2010. Then we'll get hit by the following convoy of trucks:
1. People who are losing their jobs now will be heading into mortgage arrears by 2010. Not much disposable income going around. More bad debts.
2. Companies haven't stopped laying people off yet. The decay in the economy is only "slowing", it's not actually getting any better.
3. Bad debts in banks are still crippling them and the preventing free movement of money around the economy. Until somebody pins this down it isn't going to get any better.
4. The UK government is going to be inert and incapable of taking any important decisions until the general election process is completed. Nothing of any substance will happen to make progress on our recessionary economy.
...will these factors contribute to a second "dip" in the economy late 2009 or sometime in 2010? Who knows? I certainly don't. But it is possible.
I see no point in planning for a buoyant 2010 - the "range" of possible futures doesn't look like "buoyant" is going to be a theme for the next 12 months. Plan for a near future where customers are austere and value driven. Plan for a near future where people need cheering up and looking after.
Interest rates are low now, which means people in work might have a bit of cash left over after paying their monthly mortgage payment. What do you need to do to encourage them to spend it in your hotel?
Buoyant will come back. Just not yet. Possibly.
Hmm.
An old colleague of mine (who works in a respectable US organisation and knows a thing or two) painted this picture of the reasons why 2010 might not be the year to max out your credit card:
Things will look better. We'll be told things are better. We'll smile, pick ourselves up, dust ourselves down and take a step off the kerb into 2010. Then we'll get hit by the following convoy of trucks:
1. People who are losing their jobs now will be heading into mortgage arrears by 2010. Not much disposable income going around. More bad debts.
2. Companies haven't stopped laying people off yet. The decay in the economy is only "slowing", it's not actually getting any better.
3. Bad debts in banks are still crippling them and the preventing free movement of money around the economy. Until somebody pins this down it isn't going to get any better.
4. The UK government is going to be inert and incapable of taking any important decisions until the general election process is completed. Nothing of any substance will happen to make progress on our recessionary economy.
...will these factors contribute to a second "dip" in the economy late 2009 or sometime in 2010? Who knows? I certainly don't. But it is possible.
I see no point in planning for a buoyant 2010 - the "range" of possible futures doesn't look like "buoyant" is going to be a theme for the next 12 months. Plan for a near future where customers are austere and value driven. Plan for a near future where people need cheering up and looking after.
Interest rates are low now, which means people in work might have a bit of cash left over after paying their monthly mortgage payment. What do you need to do to encourage them to spend it in your hotel?
Buoyant will come back. Just not yet. Possibly.
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