Aug
11
Several years ago I was lucky enough to study for a Masters degree at a brilliant business school in Scotland. Even more fortunate - they let me have one...
One of the techniques we learned was how to develop things called scenarios. These are best described as "stories of the future". They're based on a mixture of fact, calculation, insight and understanding. The best ones are tied back in to present day events so you can see your "stories" unfold (if your research has uncovered the right things).
The thing about scenario planning or development is that you create a range of stories covering a number of "possible" futures (typically four of them) - you make no judgement on what the future will be, you can only craft a range of stories that describe the rough directions in which it could go.
"He who predicts the future lies, even when he tells the truth" is an ancient proverb (I can't remember who said it and I apologise now to my old lecturers) which tells us that people who try to tell us what's going to happen are a shower of *******s. At least, that's my interpretation.
Some organisations have tried to use scenarios. In my part of the world, a notable example was VisitScotland, where the chief scenarist described himself as a "crystal ball gazer" - a term which had those of us who have been regularly involved in developing scenarios recoil in horror. His description makes us sound like fortune tellers, which we are emphatically not.
Hotel revenue managers use some scenario derived techniques to help them understand trends and how they might play out. But I don't think the craft is practised quite as effectively as it could be.
Here's a wee look at one "possible future" for 2010: The double dip recession.
One of the techniques we learned was how to develop things called scenarios. These are best described as "stories of the future". They're based on a mixture of fact, calculation, insight and understanding. The best ones are tied back in to present day events so you can see your "stories" unfold (if your research has uncovered the right things).
The thing about scenario planning or development is that you create a range of stories covering a number of "possible" futures (typically four of them) - you make no judgement on what the future will be, you can only craft a range of stories that describe the rough directions in which it could go.
"He who predicts the future lies, even when he tells the truth" is an ancient proverb (I can't remember who said it and I apologise now to my old lecturers) which tells us that people who try to tell us what's going to happen are a shower of *******s. At least, that's my interpretation.
Some organisations have tried to use scenarios. In my part of the world, a notable example was VisitScotland, where the chief scenarist described himself as a "crystal ball gazer" - a term which had those of us who have been regularly involved in developing scenarios recoil in horror. His description makes us sound like fortune tellers, which we are emphatically not.
Hotel revenue managers use some scenario derived techniques to help them understand trends and how they might play out. But I don't think the craft is practised quite as effectively as it could be.
Here's a wee look at one "possible future" for 2010: The double dip recession.
Continue reading ""He who predicts the future lies, even when he tells the truth""
