Nov
26
Recent apparaisals of the likelihood of a recovery for the hotel industry have started to predict that things will get better in 2011.
You'll notice that the pundits have stopped short of suggesting things might get better in 2010.
That's because they won't be getting better. Indeed, there is evidence to suggest we're going to see things getting worse...
...what sort of evidence?
Here's my take on what might happen in the UK economy for 2010:
More businesses running out of money. Look at the likes of Borders - they depleted their working capital and can't find any more - partly thanks to the parlous state of the banking system. They might not even stay alive until Christmas. Lots of jobs hang in the balance. But Borders is a high profile example of what's happening on every High Street, every office suite and every industrial estate in every part of the UK. Every day, businesses are running out of cash. Every day, more families experience a tightening of income.
We haven't seen the worst of the unemployment problem yet. As unemployment grows, so belts tighten and budgets get squeezed.
No amount of expenditure on "Job Centres" will ease this - there just aren't enough jobs going around.
If 2009 was the year of "nearly running out of cash", 2010 is likely to be the year of "really running out of cash", both for businesses and family units. Everybody has been struggling through so far, lots of people are just going to run out of energy, motivation, support and luck.
The implications for the hotel industry in the UK?
"Holiday at home" may well be the mantra again for 2010, but your value is going to have to be tip-top. Your communication of that market to your real market is going to have to be innovative and flexible. Your ability to identify and reach new markets might well be the only thing that keeps you alive.
You'll notice that the pundits have stopped short of suggesting things might get better in 2010.
That's because they won't be getting better. Indeed, there is evidence to suggest we're going to see things getting worse...
...what sort of evidence?
Here's my take on what might happen in the UK economy for 2010:
More businesses running out of money. Look at the likes of Borders - they depleted their working capital and can't find any more - partly thanks to the parlous state of the banking system. They might not even stay alive until Christmas. Lots of jobs hang in the balance. But Borders is a high profile example of what's happening on every High Street, every office suite and every industrial estate in every part of the UK. Every day, businesses are running out of cash. Every day, more families experience a tightening of income.
We haven't seen the worst of the unemployment problem yet. As unemployment grows, so belts tighten and budgets get squeezed.
No amount of expenditure on "Job Centres" will ease this - there just aren't enough jobs going around.
If 2009 was the year of "nearly running out of cash", 2010 is likely to be the year of "really running out of cash", both for businesses and family units. Everybody has been struggling through so far, lots of people are just going to run out of energy, motivation, support and luck.
The implications for the hotel industry in the UK?
"Holiday at home" may well be the mantra again for 2010, but your value is going to have to be tip-top. Your communication of that market to your real market is going to have to be innovative and flexible. Your ability to identify and reach new markets might well be the only thing that keeps you alive.
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